For Whom the Bell Tolls: Falcon Heavy Soars (Replace)

By Dale Skran

Picture: Falcon Heavy boosters landed (SpaceX, November 1, 2022)

I used to be planning to write down an total replace on the standing of the seemingly endless cage match “SLS vs all comers” however with an rising likelihood that we are going to have one (or perhaps two) Falcon Heavy flights intently adopted by Artemis I in November and presumably the primary orbital Starship/Superheavy in the identical timeframe, it began to look like simply an excessive amount of for one weblog submit. Therefore, I’ll be doing a form of operating replace, beginning with the profitable November 1st launch of the Falcon Heavy. For the primary time in over three years a Falcon Heavy lofted USSF-44, a US House Drive mission with a categorised payload to orbit at 9:41 AM EDT from Launch Complicated 39A at Kennedy House Middle. This was SpaceX’s first direct to GEO mission, and required expending the Falcon Heavy heart core, however each aspect boosters flew again to Kennedy and landed.

With the Falcon Heavy opponents deferred to at the least 2023 (Ariane 6/This autumn 2023, New Glenn/2023, Vulcan/Q1 2023), and each the Delta IV Heavy and Atlas V absolutely booked out to their presently deliberate ultimate fights, primarily the Falcon 9 is competing with the Falcon Heavy for all new enterprise. This has resulted in a record-breaking variety of launches for the Falcon 9 in 2022, and a steadily rising manifest for the Falcon Heavy.

The manifest now appears to be like like (and recalling that we’re not counting the primary FH flight because it used considerably totally different {hardware}):

1. April 9, 2019: Arabsat 2 (Profitable)
2. June 25, 2019: STP-2U/U.S. Air Drive (Profitable)
3. November 1, 2022: USSF-44 (Profitable)
4. January 4, 2023: Viasat 3 Americas/Arcturus
5. Q1 2023: USSF-67
6. Q1 2023: Jupiter-3 [EchoStar XXIV]
7. Q2 2023: USSF-52
8. October 2023: NASA Psyche mission
9. April 2024: GOES-U
10. October, 2024: Europa Clipper
11. November 2024: Astrobotic Griffin/NASA VIPER
12. NET 2024: First Gateway building launch [PPE/HALO]
13. October 2026: Roman House Telescope
14. TBD: Gateway Logistics flights – Dragon XL carries provides to Gateway

The excellent news is that the Falcon Heavy has been slowly profitable extra bids, and now has 11 extra confirmed flights manifested from all kinds of sources. Higher information is that by the top of 2024 we must see at the least ten Falcon Heavy flights, even with some slippage. This projection stays according to that in my 2021 “way forward for the SLS” weblog submit.

Due to {hardware} commonality with the Falcon 9, the Falcon Heavy builds on an in depth and rising flight heritage. The second levels of each autos are similar, and the primary levels share a excessive diploma of commonality. An extra level is that though the Falcon Heavy gained’t have ten flights beneath its belt by the top of 2023, it may have 8, and eight is fairly near 10. Assuming all eight are profitable, the Falcon Heavy might be in a fantastic place to win bids in 2024 and onward.

As I’ve noticed up to now, the most effective annual SLS launch cadence poses no menace to the Falcon Heavy. The present schedule requires:

1. November 2022: Artemis I/SLS Block 1/uncrewed lunar orbit and return
2. Could 2024: Artemis II/SLS Block 1 /four-person lunar flyby
3. 2025 Artemis III/SLS Block 1/lunar touchdown
4. 2027 Artemis IV/SLS Block 1B/supply of I-HAB to the Gateway plus lunar touchdown
5. 2028 Artemis V/SLS Block 1B/supply of ESPRIT to the Gateway and lunar touchdown

What jumps out is that by the top of 2023, SLS could have flown as soon as, whereas the Falcon Heavy as much as eight instances. By the top of 2024, SLS could have flown twice, however the Falcon Heavy as many as 12 instances. With this discrepancy in launch charges, the SLS won’t ever catch the Falcon Heavy by way of security and reliability. It’s price noting that the comparability is very apt in that SLS builds on the House Shuttle flight heritage, even to the purpose of utilizing already flown engines, whereas the Falcon Heavy builds on the Falcon 9 flight heritage, and in some instances reuses flight-proven Falcon 9 first levels as aspect boosters.

A have a look at the Starship/Superheavy manifest is known as for:

1. NET This autumn 2022: First “orbital” take a look at flight
2. NET 2023: #DearMoon lunar flyby (anticipating some slippage right here)
3. NET 2023: Starship Lunar Lander take a look at
4. 2024: Superbird 9 [first commercial flight]
5. 2025: Starship Lunar Lander [part of Artemis III]
6. TBD: Polaris Program flight #3

Primarily based on the variety of Starships in preparation to launch Starlinks at Boca Chica proper now, the above manifest appears sure to simply be fraction of the Starship/SuperHeavy flights in 2023/2024/2025. Even the above checklist plus Starlink launches understates the magnitude of the general effort since a number of tanker launches are wanted for every Starship that heads to the Moon. Additional, there are a number of take a look at flights deliberate to assist Artemis testing. The apparent conclusion is that by the top of 2024, each the Falcon Heavy and the StarShip/SuperHeavy could have considerably extra flight expertise than SLS.

SpaceX will quickly possess the singular benefit of having the ability to provide flights on both of Falcon Heavy or Starship, providing dissimilar expertise inside one firm. This enables clients to depend on SpaceX in a vogue that they can not depend on different distributors which supply solely a single heavy-lift answer. A key Falcon Heavy milestone to be in search of is the primary flight with vertical integration and the prolonged fairing, which is able to enhance the vary of missions the Falcon Heavy can assist.

The tipping level to search for seems to be when NASA begins planning future Moon/Mars flights round Falcon 9/Falcon Heavy/Starship reasonably than SLS. SLS flights may proceed till the Gateway reaches preliminary working functionality, however 2025 looks like a robust candidate for that tipping level, partially since by then it’s cheap to count on that at the least Vulcan has sufficient flight expertise to assist out. An extra issue derives from the potential for modifications in route ensuing from a brand new Administration following the November 2024 elections.

©2022 by Dale Skran