For the second time in lower than two weeks, SpaceX has indefinitely delayed a Falcon 9 launch after discovering obvious points with the rocket lower than a day earlier than liftoff.
Japanese startup ispace’s misfortune additionally marks the eighth time in lower than two months that SpaceX has delayed or aborted a Falcon 9 launch for unspecified technical causes lower than 24 hours earlier than liftoff. The streak of delays is uncommon after 12 months of record-breaking execution, over the course of which SpaceX has efficiently accomplished 60 orbital launches with only a handful of last-minute technical delays.
The variety of last-day delays and Falcon 9 launch aborts has abruptly skyrocketed in current months, probably indicating {that a} single drawback or change is at the very least partially answerable for the pattern. The streak started in early October and has continued by means of the top of November, leading to eight delays in two months, with impacts starting from minutes to days and even weeks. In all however one occasion, SpaceX’s solely rationalization was a necessity for extra time for “knowledge evaluate” or “checkouts” of the rocket, its payload, or each.
SpaceX constantly pronounces launch delays on Twitter, making it doable to collate when the corporate has said it was “standing down” from a launch try or “now focusing on” a later launch date for technical causes. Within the 18+ months between March 2021 and October 2022, SpaceX introduced solely three technical delays after publicly scheduling a launch (one last-second abort and two minor “extra checkouts” delays). Including to the oddity, SpaceX reported at the very least 15 comparable delays between January 2020 and March 2021.
A lower within the frequency of technical points is a usually anticipated consequence of a reliable group gaining expertise with the operation of a posh, new system (like a launch car). By all appearances, that’s the sample SpaceX was following: a drastic drop within the variety of technical launch aborts even because the tempo of Falcon 9 launches soared to new heights. However inside the final two months, the frequency of technical delays has skyrocketed from near zero to greater than any level in current SpaceX historical past.
With out context, it’s unimaginable to say if there’s an invisible thread connecting the current string of delays. There are numerous doable explanations, together with workforce fatigue, administration modifications, coverage modifications, and manufacturing facility points. It’s even doable that the seemingly sudden onset was brought on by an intentional change of danger posture: for instance, growing sensitivity to off-nominal alerts that had been noticed earlier than however had been discounted sufficient to keep away from launch delays.
As a part of its effort to repeatedly enhance current programs and processes, SpaceX might have modified issues an excessive amount of or eliminated one too many steps. Whereas unlikely, it’s additionally doable that the current uptick in delays is merely a coincidence. Regardless, if the pattern continues, it is going to be troublesome for SpaceX to extend its launch cadence any additional – notably towards CEO Elon Musk’s said purpose of 100 launches in 2023. Delays additionally enhance launch prices and disrupt buyer plans, incentivizing a return to smoother operations as rapidly as doable.
Most regarding is a current pair of unrelated launches which have turn into indefinitely delayed. Starlink 2-4, first scheduled to launch on November 18th, has but to obtain a brand new launch date after SpaceX apparently found issues after a Falcon 9 static fireplace check on November seventeenth. Lower than two weeks later, SpaceX has indefinitely delayed a second Falcon 9 launch – Japanese startup ispace’s first Moon touchdown try – “after additional inspections of the launch car and knowledge evaluate.”
In the end, launch delays are a basic a part of spaceflight, and it’s higher to maintain a rocket on the bottom when there’s any uncertainty about its readiness for flight. Nonetheless, huge modifications within the frequency of delays are nonetheless noteworthy, particularly when SpaceX itself doesn’t usually clarify the reason for delays for non-NASA missions.
SpaceX has a number of extra Falcon 9 launches firmly scheduled in December. It stays to be seen how precisely the indefinite delays of Starlink 2-4 and HAKUTO-R will influence these upcoming launches. Starlink 4-37, for instance, was scheduled to launch from the identical pad as HAKUTO-R as early as December sixth, however that date will slip for daily HAKUTO-R is delayed. A SpaceX ship tasked with recovering HAKUTO-R’s Falcon 9 fairing seems to be heading again to port, indicating a delay of at the very least two or three days.
