What on earth is occurring with Elon Musk and Ukraine?

Look, I’ve been avoiding speaking about Elon Musk’s meddling in worldwide affairs largely as a result of I’m not skilled sufficient in worldwide affairs to say a lot of something. However now we’ve received Fiona Hill, previously an advisor to Donald Trump who gave testimony at his first impeachment listening to, out right here suggesting that Musk is “transmitting a message for Putin.”

This shit’s bizarre, dude, even for me. Musk set off a world shitposting incident by tweeting a peace proposal for the conflict in Ukraine. In response, sitting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy polled Twitter about whether or not customers most popular a pro-Russia or pro-Ukraine Musk; sitting Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda likened Russia’s actions to somebody stealing the wheels off a Tesla; and former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev instructed Musk he’d blown his cowl as a Russian agent. Like to have enjoyable on-line!

Anyway, that wasn’t the primary time Musk had recommended that Crimea ought to be acknowledged as Russian. As a result of Ukraine’s been profitable, he stated, the nation ought to negotiate peace. “For my part, the character of that peace can be: recognizing Crimea as Russia, permitting Luhansk and Donetsk to be impartial, quasi-independent republics, and don’t block the water to Crimea like they did final time. Russia would settle for these phrases.” 

Within the CNN story that reported on these feedback, some unnamed sources recommend Musk has been involved with the Kremlin. Hill concurs. Crimea is a dry peninsula, so the priority about water “is so particular that this clearly is a message from Putin,” Hill says. 

Now, Hill says Musk is hardly alone in bearing Putin’s messages — she names former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger as one other emissary — however most different folks don’t have the identical type of cultural energy as Musk, who can also be very fashionable in Russia. “Elon Musk has monumental leverage in addition to unimaginable prominence,” Hill notes, pointing to SpaceX’s Starlink satellite tv for pc web working in Ukraine.

It’s not that uncommon for the Masters of the Universe to attempt their palms at politics. Typically, this occurs extra domestically: tax breaks, political donations, and puppet candidates, for instance. When a businessperson will get concerned in politics, it isn’t about ethical righteousness or actual civic feeling. It’s in regards to the backside line since cash is simply how the highly effective preserve rating. 

Necessary geopolitical insights?

Musk has been — admirably! — supplying connectivity to Ukraine via Starlink. This has price SpaceX $80 million and “will exceed $100M by finish of 12 months,” he wrote on Twitter. Additionally, Musk is in “common contact” with Ukraine Digital Minister Mykhailo Fedorov. CNN reported that Musk warned the Pentagon that SpaceX couldn’t go on paying for Ukraine’s web. In paperwork obtained by CNN, SpaceX says Ukraine’s use of Starlink “price near $400 million for the following 12 months.”

So, naturally, SpaceX requested the DOD to pay for service as an alternative. Naturally, on Twitter, all hell broke unfastened, and Musk in the end stated that SpaceX has withdrawn this request, although it’s in all probability a good suggestion to let the US authorities pay for Starlink. SpaceX is a non-public firm! Different personal corporations earn money on conflict! This manner, the US is the shopper, and Ukraine doesn’t need to preserve observe of Musk’s moods!

That final level is fairly vital, truly. In the course of the worldwide shitposting incident, a Ukrainian diplomat instructed Musk to “fuck off.” So when Musk’s letter about Starlink funding got here to mild, Musk stated, “We’re simply following his suggestion!” Now there’s a normal downside of studying tone on Twitter, however this appears to me like a reasonably apparent joke? I strongly suspect the letter was drafted earlier than Musk received right into a Twitter beef, however I can’t show that. All I can say is that if you’re feeling nervous about Musk’s dedication, this type of joke doesn’t actually assist.

We additionally simply noticed a tranche of Musk’s texts, the place his temper turned on a dime when Parag Agrawal, CEO of Twitter, requested Musk to cease shit-talking Twitter throughout the temporary window the place it regarded like Musk would be part of Twitter’s board. Two minutes later, Musk replied that becoming a member of the board can be “a waste of time.” This was the start of the Twitter acquisition, which should shut by October twenty eighth or all of us return to courtroom.

I’m going to imagine, within the absence of any proof, that Musk would take a geopolitical battle extra significantly than, uhhhhh, shopping for Twitter. However the optics right here aren’t nice for Musk! Making dumb jokes in a enterprise surroundings is sometimes in poor style, however making dumb jokes when folks’s lives are at stake is totally different. Greater than 14,000 civilians have been wounded or killed in Ukraine, in accordance with a UN report in September; I assume that quantity has solely grown since. In the meantime, extra untrained Russian conscripts are being shipped out into the meat grinder. 

However I additionally suspect Musk was stunned by the blowback to his peace plan. Greater than half of the People surveyed by Pew in September thought the US was offering sufficient assist or might present extra. Supporting Ukrainian conflict efforts, then, is fairly widespread! (Lower than 20 % of People thought the US was doing an excessive amount of; the remaining stated they didn’t know.) There’s a place the place it’s not moderately widespread, although, and that place is Musk’s social circle.

I’m speaking partially about SpaceX investor and Musk pal David Sacks. Chances are you’ll keep in mind the enterprise capitalist from his amusing “monster of the week” episode of the Musk v. Twitter lawsuit: he’d been subpoenaed as a part of the case, and after complaining about it on his podcast, All-In, he tried to quash the subpoena. The decide who dominated on his movement tartly famous that “In an obvious effort to maintain Sacks’s promise to his podcast listeners, the movants created the very burden of which they now complain.” He was ordered to adjust to the subpoena. 

That’s fairly good earned media, although! Sacks has additionally written in The American Conservative that too many commentators on Ukraine merely don’t play sufficient high-stakes poker to grasp methods to negotiate danger. Poker is an efficient stand-in for monetary danger — however utilizing it because the dominant danger metaphor right here ideas Sacks’ hand. In poker, in the event you determine badly, you lose all of your cash; in conflict, in the event you determine badly, folks die.

The poker metaphor is there as a result of Sacks is worried about his cash. This is sensible for a VC: it’s his job to fret about cash. And Sacks was admirably forthright in admitting this on his podcast, All-In, the place he says, “I don’t suppose you possibly can know for certain the markets are going to backside out except you already know there’s going to be a profitable decision of this Ukraine conflict.”

This issues due to Sacks’ proximity to Musk. Our ideas and opinions are formed by the folks we speak to, and it’s affordable to deduce from Twitter v. Musk that Sacks and Musk speak about politics. At one level within the texts, Sacks gives to introduce Musk to Justin Amash, a “former congressman who’s libertarian and good on free speech,” he writes to Musk. (Musk replies that he doesn’t but personal Twitter.)

On October seventeenth, Musk quote-tweeted, approvingly, an article Sacks wrote in Newsweek in regards to the significance of de-escalation in Ukraine and the way everybody making enjoyable of Musk’s peace plan was participating in “woke cancellation ways.” It appears unlikely to me that the Newsweek article was the primary time Musk heard about Sacks’ views. As a result of, individually from showing in Musk’s texts, investing in Musk’s corporations, and getting concerned in Musk’s lawsuits, Sacks seems to be an precise pal of Musk’s. That’s good. It’s good to have mates!

So when Musk says to Megaupload founder Kim Dotcom, “I’m attempting my hardest to de-escalate this example and clearly failing,” it’s value noting who round him has been asking for de-escalation. You recognize who’s far more related to that dialog than Putin? David Sacks! And you already know who I don’t have to take a position about Musk’s contact with? David Sacks! I don’t need to suppose whether or not I imagine political advisor Ian Bremmer’s declare that Musk says he had a kiki with Putin as a result of Musk and Sacks speak far more usually. (I additionally discover that Musk denies speaking to Putin about Ukraine and says that Bremmer is to not be trusted however doesn’t deny that he instructed Bremmer he’d talked to Putin, opening up the hilarious-to-me risk that Musk lied to Bremmer and is now embarrassed it received out.)

I’m not cliqued up in DC like Fiona Hill. Possibly she’s seen proof that Musk and Putin have been, idk, enjoying on-line chess collectively or one thing! Personally, although, I believe there’s a a lot easier rationalization for why Musk is so wildly out of step with the views of the general public at giant. Musk belongs to an insular milieu, one which has Deep Ideas about Ukraine. Truthfully, it’s type of extra embarrassing in case your Deep Ideas make a former presidential coverage advisor assume you’re floating check balloons for Putin once you’re not. 

Then again, all of Musk’s Twitter Deep Ideas about Ukraine have appeared between exhortations to purchase his fragrance, Burnt Hair, and tweeted-then-deleted picture macros about linking up with Kanye and Trump and their respective social media providers, Parler and Reality. Oh, and a crossover film occasion between Boss Child and Das Boot and musings in regards to the feasibility of quieter leaf blowers. If it weren’t for the pro-bono Starlink service that basically depends on Musk’s goodwill, I’m undecided we’d need to interpret Musk’s Ukraine thinkfluencer tweets in any respect.